The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to make significant gains in the Thuringia and Saxony polls, dealing a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government. These elections are seen as a barometer for next year’s federal election, with the AfD likely to dominate in both states. However, even if the AfD wins the most seats, it is unlikely to form a state government as it is polling below a majority and other parties refuse to collaborate with it.
The election comes shortly after a knife attack that has fueled a debate over immigration in Germany. Opinion polls show the AfD leading in Thuringia and closely behind in Saxony, with a strong showing also expected for the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. Scholz’s Social Democrats are polling at around 6 percent in both states, while their coalition partners lag further behind.
If the AfD were to win, it would be a landmark moment in Germany’s post-war history and a rebuke for Scholz ahead of the 2025 national elections. The eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia have historical significance, with voters who have lived under communism just over three decades ago. The AfD, founded in 2013, has capitalized on the fractious political landscape to rise in polls.
The rise of the AfD, along with the BSW party, reflects a continuing divide between East and West Germany, more than 30 years after reunification. Both parties are expected to take a significant portion of the vote in the two states, highlighting a shift towards more right-wing ideologies in the region. The outcome of these elections will have implications for the national political landscape and shape the direction of German politics in the coming years.
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