The Bristol Bay sockeye salmon run is poised for a significant increase next year, with state biologists forecasting a total of 51.21 million fish in 2025. This marks a 38% rise from the long-term average of 37.07 million since 1963, as reported by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.
While this year’s projection is encouraging, it still falls 16% short of the recent decade’s average, which saw record runs in 2021 and 2022. The department anticipates a harvest of 36.33 million sockeye salmon based on complex modeling involving various fish age classes and past data.
Despite this positive outlook, the uncertainty around future salmon returns persists, raising the question of whether the anticipated increase will benefit fishers, communities, and the seafood industry.
This year has posed significant challenges for the salmon industry, with competition from Russian suppliers, dampened demand, and rising operational costs resulting in a lower economic return despite a decent run size. The harvest yielded 31.6 million fish but ranked lower in value than historical averages, culminating in an ex-vessel worth of $128.1 million, down from a 20-year figure of $193.4 million.
Additionally, salmon sizes have decreased due to earlier maturation and environmental factors, including climate change. Employment in the Bristol Bay fish-harvesting sector diminished by 7.2% this year, but experts remain hopeful for recovery as market conditions improve.
Source
Photo credit alaskabeacon.com
