NATO Warns of Heightened Risk from Russian Hybrid Warfare
NATO officials have expressed grave concerns about the increasing likelihood of unconventional attacks by Russia against NATO members, such as acts of sabotage or arson, which could result in significant casualties. James Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid, and cyber, stated in an interview that the alliance needs to clearly communicate with both its members and Moscow about the thresholds for hybrid warfare that may provoke a military response.
With NATO’s 32 member states already facing escalating hybrid threats including sabotage of infrastructure since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Appathurai characterized the situation as a "boiling frog," where the frequency and severity of attacks are at levels that would have been unacceptable five years ago.
He reported that NATO has seen numerous kinetic acts, including disruption of undersea cables and other critical infrastructure, with dozens of plots identified or thwarted. Appathurai emphasized that one of these incidents has the potential to cause significant casualties or economic damage, which could push NATO toward invoking Article 5 – its collective defense clause.
Amidst this growing threat, NATO is revising its strategy, originally developed in 2015, to better understand and counter hybrid warfare tactics from Russia and other nations. This updated policy aims to establish clear red lines and responses to hybrid attacks. As NATO prepares for a summit in 2025 to finalize this strategy, officials stress the importance of setting thresholds that could prompt a military response, with a focus on de-escalation and managing the crisis effectively.
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Photo credit news.sky.com
